China rises in an unstable world: Chinese scholarly views on the geopolitical future

Summary

• This report investigates contemporary Chinese perspectives on the future of the international order. It examines forecasts published in the scholarly literature that touch on four key areas – China’s position in the international order, the dynamics of the US-China relationship, China’s ties with Russia, and the future of Europe – in order to provide a comprehensive understanding of Chinese future-oriented geopolitical thought.
• The analysed forecasts widely portray China as a central driver of global change. China is expected to expand its influence and take the lead on technological innovation and adoption. Analyses anticipate a prolonged period of instability and great power competition, frequently attributing systemic tensions to a declining US-led order that is gradually losing cohesion. China is seen as operating within a window of strategic opportunity amid intensifying rivalry.
• Chinese analysts almost unanimously expect the comprehensive rivalry between China and the United States to continue in the long term. Many foresee prolonged strategic decoupling and persistent contestation in the Asia-Pacific, shaped by US containment efforts. China’s continued growth and movement towards economic and technological leadership could culminate in parity or superiority by the middle of the century.
• Relations between China and Russia are expected to remain stable and broadly positive. Russia is often viewed as China’s key strategic partner. At the same time, analysts acknowledge latent tensions, including a growing power imbalance, as well as the possibility of deteriorating relations if Russia seeks renewed ties with the West or becomes wary of China’s expanding influence.
• Europe is seen as a relatively weak and divided actor compared to United States and China, constrained by internal disunity and difficulty in defining and defending common interests. Europe is expected to remain tied to the United States in the medium term, although the transatlantic relationship is likely to weaken over time.
• For Europe, the results indicate that China is benefiting from the ongoing transatlantic split and will continue to prioritise its partnership with Russia to the detriment of Europe. To a large degree, its analytic community treats the tensions between the West and the non-West as fundamental. Europe should respond by treating China’s rise as a geopolitical challenge and strengthening the fundamentals of its own power based on the assumption of continued Sino-Russian alignment.

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