Alexander Ryumin AP/TT
Executive summary
The future of Russia-China relations will have a decisive impact far beyond the borders of the two authoritarian partners. How Moscow’s and Beijing’s strategic, political, economic and military ties develop will affect security and prosperity in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and on the global stage in the intensifying battle between democracy and autocracy.
At the same time, the trajectory of their relationship in the short, medium and long term is not set in stone and will depend on numerous factors inside, between and beyond Russia and China. These will include structural bilateral factors that either enable or limit stronger relations, as well as external factors in both the European and the Indo-Pacific theatres.
How these various factors will develop and interact across different timeframes remains an open question. This report identifies three overarching scenarios for the future of Russia-China relations, as well as their development paths, likelihood and implications:
- The first, most likely, scenario based on current trends is a continuation of the status quo whereby relations strengthen but face clear limits and challenges. China continues to prop up its junior strategic partner Russia while the West remains disunited on how to handle Beijing.
- The second scenario, seen as more likely in the long term, is a worsening of relations, in which China prioritizes ties with the West and distances itself from Russia. A faltering Russian economy and war effort makes this scenario the best for the West and the worst for Russia.
- The third scenario, which appears least likely from current trends, is significantly improved ties, involving a closely aligned strategic or full-blown military alliance. China abandons its balancing act and provides direct military aid to Russia, strengthening the global autocratic bloc. The silver lining for the West could be a China with less room for manoeuvre.
The West must plan for this full range of possible outcomes across domains and their impacts. Crucially, western policy choices will play a vital role in the future development of Russia-China ties. They must therefore aim to affect the outcome in an optimal direction for western interests:
- Accept, face and prepare for a long-term joint Russia-China threat. This global strategic partnership will not go away, cannot be “solved”, and must be managed systematically.
- Build capacity to simultaneously deter and counter Russia and China in both theatres. The defence of Taiwan starts in Ukraine, as threats, resources and strategies are interconnected.
- Strengthen Europe’s capacity to secure Europe. Countering both adversaries will require the EU to upgrade both its strategic culture and its military and defence-industrial capacity.
- Transatlantic unity and dialogue. US-European alignment on framing and countering the Russia-China threat must be combined with dialogue on handling differences on China policy.
- Understand and exploit the limits of Russia-China alignment. The West must leverage the many areas and issues where Moscow and Beijing diverge.
- Maximize the cost of China’s support for Russia’s war. Pressure on China works and the EU must follow the US lead on credible secondary sanctions implementation.
- Counter the Russia-China axis globally. Shore up allies east and west, fight Russian-Chinese global influence and improve relations with middle powers.
