Quest for Strategic Autonomy? Europe Grapples with the US – China Rivalry

Executive summary

The intensifying rivalry between the US and China has reshaped Europe’s strategic calculations. Building on the 2020 European Think Tank Network on China (ETNC) report, which assessed Europe’s positioning in this context, this edition re-examines the geopolitical landscape in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This report features 22 national chapters and one dedicated to the EU, analysing the evolution of Europe’s relations with Washington and Beijing, the range of approaches to dealing the US-China rivalry and how these are expected to evolve.

The 2025 ETNC report underscores how these developments have compelled Europe to reevaluate its strategic positioning. This new geopolitical context has broadened the debate on strategic autonomy across most countries surveyed. Although the pace and ambition of this shift differ, support for strategic autonomy is growing in most of these countries. At the heart of this discussion is the shared understanding that Europe must reduce its reliance on external powers in key areas such as security, economy and technology.

On the security front, defence cooperation with the US has deepened across most of the countries featured in this report, particularly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the return of Donald Trump casts a shadow over this momentum, reviving concerns about the long-term prospects of transatlantic ties. At the same time, there is growing unease in European capitals about China’s impact on European security –fuelled in part by the perception that Beijing has enabled Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine–. Together, these developments are transforming the debate on European strategic autonomy into a more urgent and concrete policy agenda.

Economic security has also become a central focus, reflected in stricter national regulations and enhanced EU-level policy coordination. Nevertheless, national approaches to economic security –and the reassessment of dependencies on China and the US in particular– remain inconsistent, with some countries showing signs of scepticism or only limited engagement. The return of Trump to the White House has not been perceived uniformly across European capitals. Likewise, the ongoing reappraisal of economic vulnerabilities in relation to Beijing does not necessarily diminish the importance of China as a major market and partner in addressing global challenges. However, it adds to long-standing tensions over the fairness of trade with China, particularly as Europe’s trade deficit continues to widen. These concerns are now compounded by renewed US protectionism. Although the US remains a significant trade and investment partner, and recent years have seen general continuity in Europe’s economic relations with both the US and China, this apparent stability may be unsettled by the Trump Administration’s aggressive foreign and trade policy and the implementation of the EU’s emerging economic security agenda. The overall trend can therefore be summarised as increased distrust vis-à-vis the US, cautious and selective re-engagement with China, and a greater willingness to pursue strategic autonomy.

Sweden's preference: meeting the China challenge with the EU and the US

Sweden’s accession to NATO in 2024 marked a significant shift in its foreign policy, strengthening its security ties with the United States and aligning more closely with US defence priorities. Sweden views the US as an indispensable partner, but the second Trump administration presents considerable uncertainties for the future. At the same time, Sweden’s relationship with China remains strained due to concerns over human rights violations, political pressure, and China’s support of Russia. Economic ties between the two countries are significant, but Sweden has important dependencies on China, especially within green technology. There is tension between the ambition to limit this dependency and maintaining Sweden’s traditional commitment to free trade. Domestically, there is broad political consensus on strong transatlantic ties and a cautious stance toward China, but future US policy shifts, especially an increased use of trade instruments, could prompt Sweden to reevaluate its positions in the evolving US-China rivalry.

About ETNC

The European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) is a gathering of China experts from a
selection of leading European research institutes. It is devoted to the independent
policy-oriented study of Chinese foreign policy and relations between China and European
countries as well as China and the EU.