Summary 

• Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13, 2024 could have regional and global implications. It appears that the election will be fought by four candidates: Lai Ching-te for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP); Hou Yu-yi, the official candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT); Terry Gou, who launched his independent candidacy in August 2023 after failing to earn the KMT nomination; and Ko Wen-je for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). 

• The outcome of the election could affect the interests of the European Union (EU) for a number of reasons: first, the EU is reliant on Taiwanese semiconductor production; second, the risks associated with a crisis in the Taiwan Strait could have adverse effects on global peace and security; and, third, the Taiwan Strait has great importance as a trade passage for the EU economy. 

• While the DPP’s Lai rejects the so-called 1992 Consensus, a formula whereby Taiwan and China mutually tolerate, but do not agree on each other’s contending opinions on “One China”, the KMT’s Hou and independent Gou support it, and the stance of the TPP’s Ko remains ambiguous. The EU’s preference for maintaining the status quo on Taiwan could benefit from candidates like Hou, Gou or Ko, who could facilitate Taiwan’s dialogue with Beijing. That said, Lai’s criticism of China’s handling of Xinjiang and Hong Kong would probably lead to greater conformity with the values of the EU. 

• Ko and Hou aim to enhance cross-Strait economic interchange by reviving negotiations on the Cross Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA). In opposing the CSSTA, Lai has pushed for enhanced bilateral exchanges with Australia, Japan and the US. Like Lai, Gou has urged Taiwan to pursue trade diversification and move away from its current reliance on trade with China. Hou and Ko’s aspirations to enhance Taiwan-China economic engagement would move them towards closer economic integration. Enhanced economic interactions between Taiwan and China could expose Taiwan to Chinese pressure which, among other things, could affect the EU’s semiconductor supply 

• All four candidates have indicated their unceasing willingness to continue military cooperation with the US. Lai’s recent diplomatic interactions with the US have triggered military action from China. Should Lai become president, the EU might therefore have reasons to expect an even greater need to navigate its response to Chinese military provocation of Taiwan. 

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