23 February, 2024
Is a conflict over Taiwan drawing near? A review of available forecasts and scenarios
TT
Summary
- This report reviews forecasts of and scenarios for a conflict over Taiwan undertaken in the period 2013–2023. Forecasts support the impression that the risk of war has increased. A significant proportion of experts believe that some type of use of force by China (not necessarily an invasion) against Taiwan is likely to occur within the next ten years. Nonetheless, forecasters still rate the overall risk of war as low.
- Through its ongoing military modernization, China possesses increasingly credible means of accomplishing the goal of unification by force. If unchecked by US and allied balancing, the risk of conflict will continue its upward trend. Great power rivalry between the United States and China is also a growing risk factor, providing a structural reason to fear an outbreak of conflict.
- Assimilation of Taiwan is a long-standing goal of the Chinese Communist Party and experts are divided on whether its present leadership has become more determined to accomplish this. If intentions have changed, a more nationalist and revanchist orientation in domestic politics and a possible view that options for peaceful unification have been exhausted are seen as contributing to the risk of war.
- The most likely use-of-force scenario is some form of blockade of Taiwan, which would invite a military response from the US. The outcome of a blockade or limited warfare scenario cannot be predicted with any certainty, but both entail considerable risk of escalation and could involve the two great powers in a wider long-term struggle.
- Scenario writers are unconvinced that China yet possesses the capability to both accomplish an occupation and decisively defeat a US intervention. The great uncertainties involved probably mitigate the risk of an invasion in the short term. An invasion is universally seen as less likely than a blockade.
- Any conflict scenario would have catastrophic economic consequences. Supply chain disruptions would cripple the global economy and trade between China and the West would come to a halt. In most conflict scenarios, sanctions against China would ensue, with a considerable risk of a backlash for the sanctioning countries. It is as yet not known how such sanctions could be designed to achieve maximum desired effect.
